NFL Draft rumors: Travon Walker No. 1 to Jaguars can be an enormous mistake

We’re three days away from the NFL Draft and nothing is definite, however the tea leaves are settling to disclose the Jaguars taking an enormous threat with the No. 1 total decide. There’s no want for subterfuge and smokescreen if you’re choosing first total, and at this level it’s actually feeling like they’re going to take Travon Walker. His odds to go No. 1 total within the 2022 NFL Draft are actually tops at DraftKings Sportsbook.

It’s a sophisticated, bizarre draft. The 2022 class is exceptionally deep, with few really standout gamers. There’s a really actual likelihood a crew choosing at No. 9 or No. 10 might get a participant with expertise equal to anybody within the Prime 5. That might be the inner justification for taking Walker, as a result of his athletic upside is so pronounced, so uncommon, that he actually might develop into a drive like we haven’t seen within the NFL.

Or he’s dealt for peanuts in 4 years, and out of the league in six.

In case you’re on the lookout for a strong, Professional Bowl participant who will begin for a decade, 2022 is your yr. In case you’re wanting a league-defining All-Professional, that’s when this all will get harder. The Jaguars appear intent on looking for that top upside man, overlooking potential points and playing on promise. It’s one thing we’ve seen earlier than within the draft, however by no means with the No. 1 total decide, and naturally it might be GM Trent Baalke and the Jaguars to take this threat.

Baalke loves taking dangers on draft picks. It’s his favourite pastime, and he’s actively horrible at making alternatives. Actually, it’s unclear who must shoulder the blame on the subject of Baalke’s alternatives, however whether or not it’s the scouting departments below him, or if he likes to go rogue and decide along with his intestine, there may be a longtime historical past of him lacking in nearly each spherical. In 2018 when Niners Nation checked out Baalke’s alternatives it was astonishing how unhealthy the crew’s drafts have been below his watch. We’re not speaking about gamers simply not dwelling as much as their potential, it’s them being so unhealthy they have been both traded, or out of the league. An unreal 41 % of his alternatives didn’t final seven years on the crew, and he was the most important catalyst for the downfall, and rebuild of the dominant Jim Harbaugh Niners.

The shift in considering from Aidan Hutchinson to Walker started a few weeks in the past, when “chatter” started that the Jags may very well be trying on the Georgia go rusher. It’s solely picked up steam since then. As lately as final week Baalke appeared to already be justifying choosing Walker to the media, making an attempt to advocate that Walker and Hutchinson have been equally productive gamers in school.

“[They’re] used otherwise, completely completely different schemes, used otherwise inside these schemes,” stated Baalke. “Once more, you’re taking a look at them, you’re taking a look at how they made their performs, how they have been used, after which you’ve got a imaginative and prescient for the way you need to use them. All of that performs an element, however traits are vital, manufacturing is vital. You weigh all of it.”

To be clear: They completely weren’t equally productive gamers in school. There may be actually no proof of that being the case, and any argument on the contrary is simply an effort to assuage concern. Hutchinson had 14.0 sacks final yr, 16.5 tackles for a loss — he compelled two fumbles, and batted down three passes on the line of scrimmage. Walker had 9.5 sacks … in his profession, 13.0 tackles for a loss … in his profession, three passes defended … in his profession, and compelled one fumble, you guessed it … in his profession.

That’s not the purpose although. There are justifications for speaking Walker over Hutchinson that don’t contain mendacity about their school careers. You don’t take Walker for what he did at Georgia, you’re taking him for what you assume he might develop into — and that’s the place there isn’t a comparability between the 2 prime go rushers on this draft.

Hutchinson hasn’t reached his ceiling, however he’s near it. He’s a participant innately much like Joey Bosa, who had a 16.0 sack season his remaining yr ay Ohio State, and has gone on to be a dependable defensive finish who will get 8-12 sacks a yr and is a staple of the Professional Bowl.

In Walker, you’re hoping he’s J.J. Watt — however taken even additional. Watt was a decently productive go rusher at Wisconsin, who completed his junior yr with 7.0 sacks, however actually didn’t blow anybody away to the purpose he was a must-pick. Taken eleventh in 2011, two go rushers have been chosen earlier than Watt (Von Miller and Aldon Smith). Watt was an upside decide, who had great athletic potential, and ended up realizing all of it, turning right into a monster who recorded 20+ sacks … twice. And after I say Walker may very well be much more than Watt, that’s ludicrous hype, however it’s deserved.

You’re seeing nearly an identical agility scores between the 2, they’re kind of equal measurement, however Walker demolishes Watt in uncooked pace. We’re seeing completely exceptional upside at defensive finish, rivaled solely by Myles Garrett lately — although it must be famous Garrett elected to not run the shuttle or cone on the mix, so the true comparability is skewed somewhat.

Now, it’s simple to get caught up in all this. If you use the phrase “he may very well be a greater J.J. Watt,” it’s easy to think about any crew sprinting to the rostrum with the No. 1 decide card and being thrilled. What that doesn’t account for is the draw back, the danger. What if the celebrities don’t align? What if the NFL doesn’t click on for Walker the best way it did Watt? What if teaching can’t make him understand that potential?

It’s right here we get to the crux of the problem, and why I really feel Walker at No. 1 can be a mammoth mistake for Jacksonville. This can be a crew who has whiffed time, and time, and time once more with their first spherical picks, particularly on the line of defense. Whether or not it’s Dante Fowler, Derrick Harvey or Tyson Alualu, the Jags have missed on first spherical defensive linemen so many instances it defies perception. The shared DNA between these gamers: Upside over manufacturing.

One thing is baked into the Jaguars that tells this entrance workplace that they must attempt to make a splash, it doesn’t matter what. It’s as if Jacksonville is allergic to the thought of hitting a double, and can as an alternative swing for the fences each likelihood they get. Regardless of what number of instances they strike out, they’re going to come back again and preserve making an attempt to hit it out of the park. If you wish to understand how a crew turns into perennially terrible, it’s due to this considering. There’s worth in enjoying it secure if you’re horrible, as a result of it’s the one means you’ll be able to functionally enhance.

No matter potential and perceived upside Travon Walker has is vastly outweighed by the danger. The Jaguars desperately want so as to add dependable expertise that may anchor them for a decade, even when meaning probably trying wistfully at a 15-sack defensive finish if you’ve obtained a 10-sack man. Jacksonville must develop into okay with simply being okay, as a result of that’s a rattling sight higher than what they’ve been doing. Aidan Hutchinson is the best decide, on the proper time, for a crew that should make the best selection. I’m afraid they’re going to gamble as soon as extra, and discover themselves again right here in a yr, able to make the identical errors once more.